Andrzej Duda is set for a convincing victory in the 1st round of Poland’s Presidential election. However, the PiS candidate has not won here in Wrocław.
At the time of writing, 87% of Poland’s districts have declared their election results. Andrzej Duda is way out in front with a whopping 45.24% of the vote, which is over 4% more than predicted in last night’s exit poll. KO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, who will now face off against Duda in the second round, is currently on 28.92%.
Independent candidate Szymon Hołownia is 3rd with 14.3% of the vote, followed by Konfederacja’s Krzysztof Bosak (6.79%), PSL’s Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (2.46%) and Lewica’s Robert Biedroń (2.12%).
The story is nonetheless different here in Wrocław. Trzaskowski is 1st with 43.6% and Duda is second with 28%. Next is Hołownia with 14.3%, followed by Bosak (7.17%), Biedroń (3.88%) and Kosiniak-Kamysz (1.8%).
The results in Wrocław and Poland come as no surprise given the voting patterns we have observed in the last few years. Big cities are not PiS strongholds, and although PiS are the most popular party in Lower Silesia, this is mainly due to the Koalicja Obywatelska vote being splintered between other opposition parties.
Last night’s exit poll indicates that Duda is most popular with the over sixties, people living in cities with a population under 200,000, residents of towns and villages, administrative workers, farmers, people without a university degree, factory workers and the unemployed.
A majority of both women and men voted for Duda, while the current president was also the most popular candidate in every age group apart from the under thirties.
Meanwhile, Trzaskowski received the most votes from people aged under thirty (albeit only by a tiny fraction), residents of cities with a population over 200,000, university graduates, business owners, managers and students.
Polling for the second round indicates that the vote will be a close call. A recent survey conducted by Kantar for TVN 24 has Duda on 45.4% and Trzaskowski on 44.7%.
On the other hand, with Duda set to secure over 45% of votes in the 1st round alone, it is very difficult to see anything other than a victory for the PiS candidate. It is true that many of those who voted for Hołownia, Kamysz and Biedron are expected to vote against Duda in the next round. At the same time though, some will also vote for the current president.
The result could therefore rest on who the votes from far-right group Konfederacja will go to. The party’s economic policies and nationalist ideology attracts voters for different reasons, so it is not so clear cut where their votes will go.
Those attracted to Konfederacja’s nationalism will almost certainly choose Duda. However, many Konfereracja voters are more interested in the party’s economic policies, which advocate cutting taxes and scrapping benefits like 500+. Such persons could therefore be tempted to vote against Duda if they think Trzaskowski will be more business friendly.