A pre-election opinion poll conducted by Polska Press Group and Dobra Opinia has found that PiS are the most popular party in Lower Silesia.
The poll found that 39% of its respondents would vote for Jarosław Kaczynski’s party, which is 1% more than the nearest opposition grouping, Koalicja Obywatelska (PO and Nowoczesna).
PiS’ score of 39% in Lower Silesia is higher than in a number of other regions in Western Poland, including Wielkopolska, Lubuskie, Opolskie and Pomorskie.
However a significant 13% intend to vote for Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (SLD, Wiosna and Razem).
PSL, who generally represent the interests of farmers, came in at 4% (just below the 5% electoral threshold). The poll also found that Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość, the party of the extreme-right, would not gain enough votes to break though the electoral threshold.
Although the poll results indicate PiS are the biggest party in our region, they also show that the two more ‘liberal’ coalitions have a majority of the vote.
According to Gazeta Wrocławska’s analysis of the poll data, in the Wrocław area Koalicja Obywatelska enjoy a 7% lead over PiS. However that slight advantage would not equate to more seats, with both parties taking home 6 each. The coalition of the left would pick up 2 seats, with PSL having an outside chance of nicking one from the other parties.
The nationwide poll predicts an easy win for the governing party, who are expected to romp home with 45% of the vote across the country.
Despite being rocked by a number of scandals involving expenses, nepotism in public companies, strikes of doctors and teachers, a public-tv propaganda blitz and a takeover of the courts, PiS remain very popular.
Social benefits like the 500+ child benefit scheme and increased pensions have proven to be very attractive policies. At the same time, the economy has been pretty resilient, with unemployment rather low and the Złoty stable.
On top of that, the opposition have been unable to present any kind of convincing vision for the future. Very few Poles could name one specific policy Koalicja Obywatelska have in their manifesto, while disliked leader Grzegorz Schetyna is nowhere to be seen.
Therefore if PiS do win almost half of the votes in the country, it would hardly be a surprise.